Events
Adversarial Risk Analysis
David Banks
Duke University
Colloquia
When
Date: Wednesday, September 14, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm - 5:00 pm
Location: Petty 150
Abs. Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a decision-theoretic alternative to game theory, applicable to corporate competition, auctions, and counterterrorism. In ARA, one builds a model for the strategic decision making of one’s opponent(s), and then places subjective Bayesian distributions over unknown quantities. This structure enables the analyst to compartmentalize distinct kinds of uncertainty. Within this framework one can use standard Bayesian techniques to develop a probability distribution over the actions of the opponent. Given this distribution, the decision theorist chooses the action that maximizes expected utility.